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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 10 at the 29

Detroit Lions 0 – Arizona Cardinals 0

What Actually Happened

(9:40) 5-M.Prater 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +0.23 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.58 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 29, worth -1.64 EP
KICK +0.79 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 80% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.56 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 39, worth -2.31 EP
PUNT -0.49 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model