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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 4 at the 4

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Detroit Lions 10

What Actually Happened

(8:18) 5-Z.Gonzalez 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-2-A.Lee.

The Three Options

GO +2.35 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.78 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 4, worth +0.16 EP
KICK +1.78 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 21, worth -0.94 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.57 EP