4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 10 at the 51

Detroit Lions 17 – Arizona Cardinals 3

What Actually Happened

(1:34) 6-S.Martin punts 36 yards to ARI 15, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 21-P.Peterson.

The Three Options

GO -1.08 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +0.89 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 51, worth -2.03 EP
KICK -0.92 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.69 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.02 EP
PUNT -0.84 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 14, worth -0.84 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model