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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 1 at the 66

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Detroit Lions 10

What Actually Happened

(1:00) 2-A.Lee punts 55 yards to DET 11, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 28-Q.Diggs.

The Three Options

GO +0.09 EP
Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.72 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 66, worth -3.59 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.72 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 24, worth -0.72 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.81 EP