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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 3 at the 58

Detroit Lions 0 – Arizona Cardinals 0

What Actually Happened

(8:37) 6-S.Martin punts 43 yards to ARI 15, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 21-P.Peterson.

The Three Options

GO -0.55 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +1.96 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 58, worth -3.39 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -1.01 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 18, worth -1.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EP