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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 8 at the 73

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Detroit Lions 0

What Actually Happened

(6:32) 2-A.Lee punts 51 yards to DET 22, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 12-B.Ellington.

The Three Options

GO -1.90 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.92 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 73, worth -4.09 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -0.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 31, worth -0.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model