4TH&DATA
EN ES
← Home
GB Away

Green Bay Packers

HC Mike McCarthy
@
SEA Home

Seattle Seahawks

HC Pete Carroll
Thursday 2018-11-15 · 20:20 CenturyLink Field, Seattle US 🌧 Rain Spread 3.0 O/U 49.0

Win Probability

GB
46.8%
SEA
53.2%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • GB offense: +0.079 EPA/play over its last 8 games (13th in the league)
  • SEA offense: +0.079 EPA/play over its last 8 games (12th in the league)
  • SEA defense: +0.040 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (21st in the league)
  • Aaron Rodgers (GB): +0.114 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

GB 25
–
SEA 26
Projected margin: SEA by 1 Projected total: 51

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 11

GB

Kentrell Brice S Out Ankle
Randall Cobb WR Out Hamstring
Kevin King CB Out Hamstring
Nick Perry LB Out Knee
Lucas Patrick G Doubtful Concussion
Bashaud Breeland CB Questionable Groin
Blake Martinez LB Questionable Ankle

SEA

K.J. Wright LB Doubtful Knee
Maurice Alexander S Questionable Elbow
Dion Jordan DE Questionable Knee
Delano Hill S Questionable Quadricep
Neiko Thorpe CB Questionable Groin

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 11 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

GB 24
–
SEA 27

Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 0 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 13:51 TD GB (13:51) (Shotgun) 33-A.Jones right end for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 6 – SEA 0
  • Q1 06:04 FG SEA (6:04) 11-S.Janikowski 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson. GB 7 – SEA 3
  • Q1 03:21 TD GB (3:21) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep right to 85-R.Tonyan for 54 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 13 – SEA 3
  • Q2 08:07 TD SEA (8:07) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short left to 89-D.Baldwin for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 14 – SEA 9
  • Q2 03:25 TD SEA (3:25) 74-G.Fant reported in as eligible. 32-C.Carson right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. GB 14 – SEA 16
  • Q2 00:51 TD GB (:51) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep right to 33-A.Jones for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 20 – SEA 17
  • Q4 12:18 FG SEA (12:18) 11-S.Janikowski 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson. GB 21 – SEA 20
  • Q4 08:27 FG GB (8:27) 2-M.Crosby 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-6-J.Scott. GB 24 – SEA 20
  • Q4 05:11 TD SEA (5:11) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short middle to 84-E.Dickson for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 24 – SEA 26

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 8 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (13:04) 4-M.Dickson punts 57 yards to GB 16, Center-69-T.Ott. 11-T.Davis to GB 23 for 7 yards (38-T.Madden; 51-B.Mingo).

  • Q1 GB 4th & 3 at the 29
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.57 EP
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 78%

    (10:51) 2-M.Crosby 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-6-J.Scott.

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 1 at the 29
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 78%

    (7:29) (Shotgun) 32-C.Carson right tackle to GB 19 for 10 yards (37-J.Jackson).

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 12 at the 21
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 89%

    (6:04) 11-S.Janikowski 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 7 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (1:45) 4-M.Dickson punts 54 yards to GB 11, Center-69-T.Ott. 11-T.Davis pushed ob at GB 26 for 15 yards (84-E.Dickson).

  • Q1 GB 4th & 5 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (:41) 6-J.Scott punts 46 yards to SEA 23, Center-43-H.Bradley, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett.

  • Q2 GB 4th & 8 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (4:54) 6-J.Scott punts 47 yards to SEA 30, Center-43-H.Bradley, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 1 at the 57
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 72%

    (:02) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short middle to 27-M.Davis to GB 42 for 15 yards (28-T.Brown).

  • Q3 GB 4th & 7 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 31%

    (11:42) 6-J.Scott punts 38 yards to SEA 10, Center-43-H.Bradley, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett.

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 13 at the 93
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (9:52) 4-M.Dickson punts 38 yards to SEA 45, Center-69-T.Ott, out of bounds. PENALTY on GB-25-W.Redmond, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at SEA 45.

  • Q3 GB 4th & 15 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (8:21) 6-J.Scott punts 40 yards to SEA 20, Center-43-H.Bradley, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett.

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 14 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (6:48) 4-M.Dickson punts 59 yards to GB 25, Center-69-T.Ott. 11-T.Davis to GB 34 for 9 yards (38-T.Madden; 51-B.Mingo).

  • Q3 GB 4th & 9 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 29%

    (3:55) 6-J.Scott punts 46 yards to SEA 3, Center-43-H.Bradley, downed by GB-28-T.Brown.

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 16 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 84%

    (12:18) 11-S.Janikowski 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

  • Q4 GB 4th & 11 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 92%

    (8:27) 2-M.Crosby 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-6-J.Scott.

  • Q4 GB 4th & 2 at the 67 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.57 EP
    p(convert) 63%

    (4:20) 6-J.Scott punts 67 yards to end zone, Center-43-H.Bradley, Touchback.