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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 5 at the 69

Green Bay Packers 14 – Seattle Seahawks 3

What Actually Happened

(:41) 6-J.Scott punts 46 yards to SEA 23, Center-43-H.Bradley, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett.

The Three Options

GO -1.52 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.26 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 69, worth -4.05 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.61 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 27, worth -1.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model