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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 7 at the 48

Green Bay Packers 21 – Seattle Seahawks 17

What Actually Happened

(11:42) 6-J.Scott punts 38 yards to SEA 10, Center-43-H.Bradley, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett.

The Three Options

GO -0.47 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +3.13 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 48, worth -2.81 EP
KICK -1.42 EP
  • 31% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 69% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -2.89 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 14, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model