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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 7 at the 65

Seattle Seahawks 3 – Green Bay Packers 14

What Actually Happened

(1:45) 4-M.Dickson punts 54 yards to GB 11, Center-69-T.Ott. 11-T.Davis pushed ob at GB 26 for 15 yards (84-E.Dickson).

The Three Options

GO -0.86 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.59 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 65, worth -3.29 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.24 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 23, worth -0.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model