Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 8 at the 73

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Green Bay Packers 7

(13:04) 4-M.Dickson punts 57 yards to GB 16, Center-69-T.Ott. 11-T.Davis to GB 23 for 7 yards (38-T.Madden; 51-B.Mingo).

The Three Options

GO -1.53 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.26 EP
60% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 73, worth -4.09 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model