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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 2 at the 67

Green Bay Packers 24 – Seattle Seahawks 27

What Actually Happened

(4:20) 6-J.Scott punts 67 yards to end zone, Center-43-H.Bradley, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.40 EP
Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.17 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 67, worth -3.02 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.97 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 25, worth -0.97 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.57 EP