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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 1 at the 29

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Green Bay Packers 7

What Actually Happened

(7:29) (Shotgun) 32-C.Carson right tackle to GB 19 for 10 yards (37-J.Jackson).

The Three Options

GO +2.80 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.47 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 29, worth -0.87 EP
KICK +1.53 EP
  • 78% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.45 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 39, worth -1.65 EP
PUNT +0.35 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model