Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 13 at the 93

Seattle Seahawks 17 – Green Bay Packers 21

What Actually Happened

(9:52) 4-M.Dickson punts 38 yards to SEA 45, Center-69-T.Ott, out of bounds. PENALTY on GB-25-W.Redmond, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at SEA 45.

The Three Options

GO -3.23 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.80 EP
65% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 93, worth -5.39 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (110 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model