Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 1 at the 57

Seattle Seahawks 17 – Green Bay Packers 21

(:02) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short middle to 27-M.Davis to GB 42 for 15 yards (28-T.Brown).

The Three Options

GO -0.14 EP

What Happened

72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +0.28 EP
28% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 57, worth -1.20 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

Chose GO ✓ matched the model