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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 16 at the 25

Seattle Seahawks 17 – Green Bay Packers 21

What Actually Happened

(12:18) 11-S.Janikowski 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +0.85 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.29 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25, worth -0.60 EP
KICK +1.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 84% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.38 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 35, worth -1.42 EP
PUNT +0.31 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model