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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 3 at the 29

Green Bay Packers 7 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(10:51) 2-M.Crosby 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-6-J.Scott.

The Three Options

GO +1.29 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.14 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 29, worth -1.68 EP
KICK +0.72 EP
What Happened
  • 78% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 39, worth -2.42 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.57 EP