4th & Data
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Tennessee Titans

HC Mike Vrabel
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Buffalo Bills

HC Sean McDermott
Sunday 2018-10-07 · 13:00 New Era Field, Orchard Park US 🌧 Rain Spread -6.0 O/U 38.0

Win Probability

TEN
47.2%
BUF
52.8%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • BUF offense: -0.139 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • TEN offense: -0.094 EPA/play over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • QB edge to TEN: Josh Allen (BUF) -0.174 vs Marcus Mariota (TEN) -0.052 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

TEN 21
–
BUF 22
Projected margin: BUF by 1 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 5

TEN

Kenny Vaccaro S Out Elbow
Wesley Woodyard LB Out Shoulder
Dennis Kelly T Questionable Illness

BUF

Rafael Bush S Questionable Shoulder
Micah Hyde S Questionable Groin
Charles Clay TE Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 5 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

TEN 12
–
BUF 13

Prediction missed by 0 pts on margin, 18 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:12 TD BUF (9:12) 17-J.Allen scrambles left tackle for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 0 – BUF 6
  • Q1 01:39 FG TEN (1:39) 4-R.Succop 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern. TEN 3 – BUF 7
  • Q2 00:03 FG TEN (:03) 4-R.Succop 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern. TEN 6 – BUF 7
  • Q3 02:03 FG BUF (2:03) 4-S.Hauschka 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez. TEN 6 – BUF 10
  • Q4 10:34 FG TEN (10:34) 4-R.Succop 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern. TEN 9 – BUF 10
  • Q4 04:47 FG TEN (4:47) 4-R.Succop 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern. TEN 12 – BUF 10
  • Q4 00:03 FG BUF (:03) 4-S.Hauschka 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez. TEN 12 – BUF 13

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 1 at the 38
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 56%

    (13:13) 33-C.Ivory left guard to TEN 35 for 3 yards (54-R.Evans). Key block: P.DiMarco.

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 2 at the 53
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.96 EP
    p(convert) 57% p(FG) 20%

    (8:01) 6-B.Kern punts 45 yards to BUF 8, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 14-R.McCloud.

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 9 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (5:19) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 40 yards to TEN 37, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 14-N.Williams to BUF 25 for 38 yards (30-L.Pitts).

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 3 at the 7
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.94 EP
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 97%

    (1:39) 4-R.Succop 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 8 at the 45
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 37%

    (12:29) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 45 yards to end zone, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Touchback. Kick into end zone.

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 1 at the 28
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 79%

    (7:40) (Run formation) 33-C.Ivory right guard to TEN 26 for 2 yards (26-L.Ryan).

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 7 at the 12
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 95%

    (5:10) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Bojorquez pass incomplete short middle to 4-S.Hauschka [41-B.Trawick].

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 14 at the 36
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 61%

    (:03) 4-R.Succop 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 15 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 28%

    (10:03) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 44 yards to TEN 5, impetus ends at TEN 1, Center-69-R.Ferguson, out of bounds. Punt credited as 48 yds. (to point of first touching). Ball batted backwards.

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 13 at the 87
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (7:02) 6-B.Kern punts 61 yards to BUF 26, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 14-R.McCloud to BUF 34 for 8 yards (29-D.Cruikshank, 36-L.Sims).

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 10 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (6:40) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 42 yards to TEN 24, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 14-N.Williams to TEN 25 for 1 yard (26-T.Jones).

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 8 at the 22
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 88%

    (2:03) 4-S.Hauschka 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 4 at the 21
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 89%

    (10:34) 4-R.Succop 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 11 at the 32 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 70%

    (4:47) 4-R.Succop 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 5 at the 28 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 79%

    (:03) 4-S.Hauschka 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez.