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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 14 at the 36

Tennessee Titans 3 – Buffalo Bills 7

What Actually Happened

(:03) 4-R.Succop 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

The Three Options

GO +0.52 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +2.52 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 36, worth -0.13 EP
KICK +1.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.97 EP
  • 39% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 46, worth -0.40 EP
PUNT -0.00 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model