Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 9 at the 77

Buffalo Bills 7 – Tennessee Titans 0

(5:19) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 40 yards to TEN 37, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 14-N.Williams to BUF 25 for 38 yards (30-L.Pitts).

The Three Options

GO -2.17 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.77 EP
65% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 77, worth -4.25 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model