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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 2 at the 53

Tennessee Titans 0 – Buffalo Bills 7

What Actually Happened

(8:01) 6-B.Kern punts 45 yards to BUF 8, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 14-R.McCloud.

The Three Options

GO +0.02 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.46 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 53, worth -3.23 EP
KICK -2.13 EP
  • 20% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 80% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -3.06 EP
PUNT -0.93 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 15, worth -0.93 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.96 EP