4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 8 at the 22

Buffalo Bills 7 – Tennessee Titans 6

What Actually Happened

(2:03) 4-S.Hauschka 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez.

The Three Options

GO +1.06 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +5.12 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 22, worth -0.69 EP
KICK +1.70 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 32, worth -1.38 EP
PUNT +0.04 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model