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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 5 at the 28

Buffalo Bills 10 – Tennessee Titans 12

What Actually Happened

(:03) 4-S.Hauschka 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez.

The Three Options

GO +0.44 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +1.19 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 28, worth -0.01 EP
KICK +2.33 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 79% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +3.00 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 38, worth -0.11 EP
PUNT +0.03 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model