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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 7 at the 12

Buffalo Bills 7 – Tennessee Titans 3

What Actually Happened

(5:10) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Bojorquez pass incomplete short middle to 4-S.Hauschka [41-B.Trawick].

The Three Options

GO +1.32 EP
What Happened
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.75 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 12, worth -0.66 EP
KICK +1.55 EP
Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.68 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 22, worth -1.08 EP
PUNT -0.60 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model