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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 4 at the 21

Tennessee Titans 6 – Buffalo Bills 10

What Actually Happened

(10:34) 4-R.Succop 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

The Three Options

GO +1.26 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.63 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 21, worth -1.11 EP
KICK +1.23 EP
What Happened
  • 89% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.60 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 31, worth -1.67 EP
PUNT -0.54 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model