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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 1 at the 38

Buffalo Bills 0 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(13:13) 33-C.Ivory left guard to TEN 35 for 3 yards (54-R.Evans). Key block: P.DiMarco.

The Three Options

GO +1.98 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.93 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 38, worth -1.76 EP
KICK +0.18 EP
  • 56% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.32 EP
  • 44% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 47, worth -2.50 EP
PUNT +0.03 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model