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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 13 at the 87

Tennessee Titans 6 – Buffalo Bills 7

What Actually Happened

(7:02) 6-B.Kern punts 61 yards to BUF 26, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 14-R.McCloud to BUF 34 for 8 yards (29-D.Cruikshank, 36-L.Sims).

The Three Options

GO -3.35 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +0.78 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 87, worth -5.20 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (104 yards).

PUNT -2.37 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 45, worth -2.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model