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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 8 at the 45

Buffalo Bills 7 – Tennessee Titans 3

What Actually Happened

(12:29) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 45 yards to end zone, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Touchback. Kick into end zone.

The Three Options

GO -0.23 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.71 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 45, worth -2.15 EP
KICK -0.85 EP
  • 37% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.15 EP
  • 63% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.61 EP
PUNT -0.11 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 12, worth -0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model