4TH&DATA
EN ES
← Home
TEN Away

Tennessee Titans

HC Mike Vrabel
@
JAX Home

Jacksonville Jaguars

HC Doug Marrone
Sunday 2018-09-23 · 13:00 TIAA Bank Stadium, Jacksonville US ☀️ Clear Spread 10.0 O/U 39.0

Win Probability

TEN
23.8%
JAX
76.2%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to JAX: Blake Bortles (JAX) +0.112 vs Blaine Gabbert (TEN) -0.256 EPA/dropback
  • TEN offense: -0.111 EPA/play over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
  • JAX defense: -0.089 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (10th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

TEN 17
–
JAX 25
Projected margin: JAX by 8 Projected total: 42

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 3

TEN

David Fluellen RB Out Groin
Dennis Kelly T Out Illness
Kamalei Correa LB Questionable Back
Kendrick Lewis S Questionable Foot
Jack Conklin T Questionable Knee
Marcus Mariota QB Questionable right Elbow

JAX

A.J. Cann G Questionable Triceps
Leonard Fournette RB Questionable Hamstring
D.J. Hayden CB Questionable Toe
Jalen Ramsey CB Questionable Ankle
T.J. Yeldon RB Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 3 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

TEN 9
–
JAX 6

Prediction missed by 11 pts on margin, 27 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 05:03 FG TEN (5:03) 4-R.Succop 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern. TEN 3 – JAX 0
  • Q2 08:59 FG JAX (8:59) 4-J.Lambo 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-9-L.Cooke. TEN 3 – JAX 3
  • Q3 10:05 FG TEN (10:05) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern. TEN 6 – JAX 3
  • Q4 11:31 FG JAX (11:31) 4-J.Lambo 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-9-L.Cooke. TEN 6 – JAX 6
  • Q4 04:13 FG TEN (4:13) 4-R.Succop 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern. TEN 9 – JAX 6

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 14 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 20%

    (11:35) 9-L.Cooke punts 52 yards to end zone, Center-46-C.Tinker, Touchback.

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 15 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (10:04) 6-B.Kern punts 45 yards to JAX 40, Center-48-B.Brinkley, out of bounds.

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 4 at the 54
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (9:17) (Punt formation) Direct snap to 22-C.Davis. 30-C.Grant left end to JAX 46 for no gain (36-L.Sims).

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 1 at the 20
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.35 EP
    p(convert) 63% p(FG) 90%

    (5:03) 4-R.Succop 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 3 at the 55
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP
    p(convert) 53%

    (1:33) 9-L.Cooke punts 51 yards to TEN 4, Center-46-C.Tinker, downed by JAX-80-J.O'Shaughnessy.

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 6 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (14:34) 6-B.Kern punts 52 yards to JAX 27, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 85-J.Mickens to JAX 38 for 11 yards (48-B.Brinkley).

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 15 at the 28
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 78%

    (8:59) 4-J.Lambo 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 7 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (7:59) 6-B.Kern punts 54 yards to JAX 18, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 85-J.Mickens to JAX 26 for 8 yards (51-W.Compton). PENALTY on JAX-41-T.Herndon, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 9 yards, enforced at JAX 18.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 1 at the 82
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.00 EP
    p(convert) 73%

    (5:49) 9-L.Cooke punts 40 yards to TEN 42, Center-46-C.Tinker. 25-A.Jackson to JAX 45 for 13 yards (80-J.O'Shaughnessy). PENALTY on TEN-20-K.Durden, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at TEN 48.

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 2 at the 54
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.88 EP
    p(convert) 56%

    (3:40) 6-B.Kern punts 54 yards to end zone, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Touchback.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 10 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (2:35) 9-L.Cooke punts 40 yards to TEN 40, Center-46-C.Tinker. 18-R.Matthews to 50 for 10 yards (22-C.Davis; 81-N.Paul).

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 1 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 74%

    (:02) 4-R.Succop 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 11 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 91%

    (10:05) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 4 at the 54
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EP
    p(convert) 48%

    (8:02) 9-L.Cooke punts 45 yards to TEN 9, Center-46-C.Tinker. 18-R.Matthews to TEN 18 for 9 yards (22-C.Davis; 41-T.Herndon).

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 6 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 24%

    (2:36) 6-B.Kern punts 38 yards to JAX 12, Center-48-B.Brinkley, downed by TEN-36-L.Sims.

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 5 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 90%

    (11:31) 4-J.Lambo 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 3 at the 10 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 96%

    (4:13) 4-R.Succop 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 3 at the 68 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55%

    (2:51) 9-L.Cooke punts 45 yards to TEN 23, Center-46-C.Tinker. 18-R.Matthews to TEN 24 for 1 yard (41-T.Herndon).

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 8 at the 50 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 24%

    (:25) 6-B.Kern punts 37 yards to JAX 13, Center-48-B.Brinkley, out of bounds.