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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 4 at the 54

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(9:17) (Punt formation) Direct snap to 22-C.Davis. 30-C.Grant left end to JAX 46 for no gain (36-L.Sims).

The Three Options

GO +0.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +3.08 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 54, worth -2.71 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.24 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 16, worth -0.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model