Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 7 at the 72

Tennessee Titans 3 – Jacksonville Jaguars 3

What Actually Happened

(7:59) 6-B.Kern punts 54 yards to JAX 18, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 85-J.Mickens to JAX 26 for 8 yards (51-W.Compton). PENALTY on JAX-41-T.Herndon, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 9 yards, enforced at JAX 18.

The Three Options

GO -2.26 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.31 EP
62% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 72, worth -4.40 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model