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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 1 at the 30

Tennessee Titans 3 – Jacksonville Jaguars 3

What Actually Happened

(:02) 4-R.Succop 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

The Three Options

GO +1.57 EP
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +2.45 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 30, worth -0.03 EP
KICK +2.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +3.00 EP
  • 26% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 40, worth -0.15 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model