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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 2 at the 54

Tennessee Titans 3 – Jacksonville Jaguars 3

What Actually Happened

(3:40) 6-B.Kern punts 54 yards to end zone, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.34 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 54, worth -2.97 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.87 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 16, worth -0.87 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.88 EP