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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
Tennessee Titans
4th & 8 at the 50
Tennessee Titans 9 – Jacksonville Jaguars 6
What Actually Happened
(:25) 6-B.Kern punts 37 yards to JAX 13, Center-48-B.Brinkley, out of bounds.
The Three Options
GO
-0.28 EP
-
33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +0.58 EP
- 67% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 50, worth -0.71 EP
KICK
+0.13 EP
Model's Pick
- 24% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.81 EP
- 76% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -0.71 EP
PUNT
-0.07 EP
What Happened
- Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 14, worth -0.07 EP
The Verdict
Chose PUNT
✓ matched the model
