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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 4 at the 54

Jacksonville Jaguars 3 – Tennessee Titans 6

What Actually Happened

(8:02) 9-L.Cooke punts 45 yards to TEN 9, Center-46-C.Tinker. 18-R.Matthews to TEN 18 for 9 yards (22-C.Davis; 41-T.Herndon).

The Three Options

GO -0.16 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.85 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 54, worth -2.93 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.47 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 16, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EP