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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 6 at the 50

Tennessee Titans 6 – Jacksonville Jaguars 3

What Actually Happened

(2:36) 6-B.Kern punts 38 yards to JAX 12, Center-48-B.Brinkley, downed by TEN-36-L.Sims.

The Three Options

GO -0.68 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.94 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 50, worth -2.84 EP
KICK -1.73 EP
  • 24% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 76% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -2.84 EP
PUNT -0.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 14, worth -0.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model