4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 1 at the 20

Tennessee Titans 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(5:03) 4-R.Succop 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

The Three Options

GO +2.42 EP
Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.54 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 20, worth -1.23 EP
KICK +1.06 EP
What Happened
  • 90% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.41 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 30, worth -1.92 EP
PUNT -0.62 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.35 EP