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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 6 at the 79

Tennessee Titans 3 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(14:34) 6-B.Kern punts 52 yards to JAX 27, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 85-J.Mickens to JAX 38 for 11 yards (48-B.Brinkley).

The Three Options

GO -2.55 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +0.37 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 79, worth -4.58 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -2.27 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 36, worth -2.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model