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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 1 at the 82

Jacksonville Jaguars 3 – Tennessee Titans 3

What Actually Happened

(5:49) 9-L.Cooke punts 40 yards to TEN 42, Center-46-C.Tinker. 25-A.Jackson to JAX 45 for 13 yards (80-J.O'Shaughnessy). PENALTY on TEN-20-K.Durden, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at TEN 48.

The Three Options

GO -0.61 EP
Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth +0.79 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 82, worth -4.44 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -1.61 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 40, worth -1.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.00 EP