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DAL Away

Dallas Cowboys

HC Jason Garrett
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NYG Home

New York Giants

HC Steve Spagnuolo
Sunday 2017-12-10 · 13:00 MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford US 🌨 Snow Spread -4.0 O/U 42.0

Win Probability

DAL
50.6%
NYG
49.4%
🌨 Snow

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NYG offense: -0.172 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • DAL defense: +0.072 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • DAL on 3 more days rest than NYG
  • QB edge to DAL: Eli Manning (NYG) -0.080 vs Dak Prescott (DAL) -0.088 EPA/dropback (NYG starting Eli Manning in place of Geno Smith)

Predicted Final Score

DAL 22
–
NYG 21
Projected margin: DAL by 1 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 14

DAL

La'el Collins T Questionable Back
David Irving DE Questionable Concussion
Orlando Scandrick CB Questionable Back
Brice Butler WR Questionable Foot
Maliek Collins DT Questionable Foot
Justin Durant LB Questionable Concussion
Tyron Smith T Questionable Back

NYG

B.J. Goodson LB Out Ankle
Justin Pugh G Out Back
Chad Wheeler T Questionable Concussion
Eli Apple CB Questionable Hip
Orleans Darkwa RB Questionable Illness
Jason Pierre-Paul DE Questionable Finger
Travis Rudolph WR Questionable Hamstring
Sterling Shepard WR Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 14 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DAL 30
–
NYG 10

Prediction missed by 19 pts on margin, 3 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:18 FG DAL (7:18) 5-D.Bailey 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones. DAL 3 – NYG 0
  • Q2 12:54 FG NYG (12:54) 2-A.Rosas 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing. DAL 3 – NYG 3
  • Q2 02:12 TD NYG (2:12) 10-E.Manning pass short right to 85-R.Ellison for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 3 – NYG 9
  • Q2 01:47 TD DAL (1:47) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 88-D.Bryant for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 9 – NYG 10
  • Q4 07:45 TD DAL (7:45) 4-D.Prescott pass deep middle to 82-J.Witten for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 16 – NYG 10
  • Q4 04:21 TD DAL (4:21) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 45-R.Smith for 81 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 23 – NYG 10
  • Q4 03:03 TD DAL (3:03) 45-R.Smith left end for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 29 – NYG 10

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.86 EP
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 98%

    (7:18) 5-D.Bailey 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 18 at the 21
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 20% p(FG) 88%

    (12:54) 2-A.Rosas 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing.

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 6 at the 35
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 61%

    (9:45) 5-D.Bailey 53 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 3 at the 37
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.02 EP
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 55%

    (8:00) 9-B.Wing punts 37 yards to end zone, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Touchback.

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 4 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (6:32) 6-C.Jones punts 42 yards to NYG 32, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, out of bounds.

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 2 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 57%

    (:21) 9-B.Wing punts 40 yards to DAL 15, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, fair catch by 10-R.Switzer.

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 10 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 17%

    (11:13) 9-B.Wing punts 42 yards to DAL 11, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 11-C.Beasley to DAL 26 for 15 yards (83-K.Raymond, 89-J.Adams).

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 5 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (9:36) 6-C.Jones punts 48 yards to NYG 21, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 83-K.Raymond to NYG 18 for -3 yards (31-B.Jones).

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 5 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (7:38) 9-B.Wing punts 55 yards to end zone, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Touchback.

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 5 at the 32
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 68%

    (2:17) 5-D.Bailey 50 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 2 at the 52
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 19%

    (1:04) 9-B.Wing punts 38 yards to DAL 14, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 11-C.Beasley to DAL 18 for 4 yards (85-R.Ellison).

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 1 at the 73
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.76 EP
    p(convert) 71%

    (14:14) 6-C.Jones punts 42 yards to NYG 31, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, downed by DAL-38-J.Heath.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 2 at the 61
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP
    p(convert) 58%

    (12:44) 9-B.Wing punts 46 yards to DAL 15, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 10-R.Switzer to DAL 22 for 7 yards (51-Z.DeOssie).

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 5 at the 58
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP
    p(convert) 44%

    (11:15) 6-C.Jones punts 58 yards to end zone, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Touchback.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 3 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52%

    (9:40) 9-B.Wing punts 55 yards to DAL 18, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 10-R.Switzer to DAL 28 for 10 yards (29-N.Berhe). PENALTY on DAL-41-K.Smith, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at DAL 28.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 8 at the 46 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 31%

    (4:42) 9-B.Wing punts 34 yards to DAL 12, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, downed by NYG-41-D.Rodgers-Cromartie.