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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 2 at the 55

New York Giants 10 – Dallas Cowboys 10

What Actually Happened

(:21) 9-B.Wing punts 40 yards to DAL 15, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, fair catch by 10-R.Switzer.

The Three Options

GO -0.03 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +1.27 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 55, worth -1.75 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.14 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 16, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model