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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 4 at the 74

Dallas Cowboys 3 – New York Giants 3

What Actually Happened

(6:32) 6-C.Jones punts 42 yards to NYG 32, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.71 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.09 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 74, worth -4.45 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.80 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 32, worth -1.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model