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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 10 at the 53

New York Giants 10 – Dallas Cowboys 10

What Actually Happened

(11:13) 9-B.Wing punts 42 yards to DAL 11, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 11-C.Beasley to DAL 26 for 15 yards (83-K.Raymond, 89-J.Adams).

The Three Options

GO -0.90 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.20 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 53, worth -2.70 EP
KICK -1.61 EP
  • 17% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.46 EP
  • 83% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -2.47 EP
PUNT -0.09 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 15, worth -0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model