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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 5 at the 55

New York Giants 10 – Dallas Cowboys 10

What Actually Happened

(7:38) 9-B.Wing punts 55 yards to end zone, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.38 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.84 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 55, worth -2.66 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 16, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model