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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 3 at the 37

New York Giants 3 – Dallas Cowboys 3

What Actually Happened

(8:00) 9-B.Wing punts 37 yards to end zone, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +1.05 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.86 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 37, worth -1.50 EP
KICK +0.14 EP
  • 55% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.12 EP
  • 45% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 46, worth -2.29 EP
PUNT +0.03 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth +0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.02 EP