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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 5 at the 58

Dallas Cowboys 10 – New York Giants 10

What Actually Happened

(11:15) 6-C.Jones punts 58 yards to end zone, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.74 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.26 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 58, worth -3.06 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -1.08 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 18, worth -1.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP