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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 5 at the 32

Dallas Cowboys 10 – New York Giants 10

What Actually Happened

(2:17) 5-D.Bailey 50 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +0.58 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.06 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 32, worth -1.76 EP
KICK +0.36 EP
What Happened
  • 68% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.65 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 42, worth -2.38 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model