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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 2 at the 52

New York Giants 10 – Dallas Cowboys 10

What Actually Happened

(1:04) 9-B.Wing punts 38 yards to DAL 14, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 11-C.Beasley to DAL 18 for 4 yards (85-R.Ellison).

The Three Options

GO +0.55 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.84 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 52, worth -2.43 EP
KICK -1.42 EP
  • 19% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.52 EP
  • 81% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -2.35 EP
PUNT +0.13 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 15, worth +0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP