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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 5 at the 69

Dallas Cowboys 10 – New York Giants 10

What Actually Happened

(9:36) 6-C.Jones punts 48 yards to NYG 21, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 83-K.Raymond to NYG 18 for -3 yards (31-B.Jones).

The Three Options

GO -1.56 EP
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.43 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 69, worth -4.03 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.44 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 27, worth -1.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model