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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 18 at the 21

New York Giants 0 – Dallas Cowboys 3

What Actually Happened

(12:54) 2-A.Rosas 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing.

The Three Options

GO +0.77 EP
  • 20% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.22 EP
  • 80% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 21, worth -0.59 EP
KICK +1.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.20 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 31, worth -1.23 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model